Executive Summary

This publicly sourced, evidence-based report shows that the closure of St Clare’s School is avoidable. Non-viability is unsupported by local data, and closure is against the will and readiness of the school’s community to pursue sustainable alternatives.

This document outlines credible alternatives to closure, rebuts demographic and financial assumptions, and highlights the strength of community support.

SCIST’s prospective model demonstrate that the school can remain open under responsible, independent governance.(2)

The report calls for urgent reconsideration of the closure decision considering the data, precedent, and ethical obligations.

This demonstrates that St Clare’s School can remain open – sustainably, ethically, and in service to the wider community. The community has mobilised with remarkable speed and commitment. What’s needed now is:

• Visibility – Share this report and help amplify the facts behind the closure decision.
• Accountability – Contact local representatives and educational authorities to demand meaningful engagement with viable alternatives.
• Support – Join the conversation on social media, sign the petition, and support SCIST’s ongoing work.
• Donations & Expertise – Continue fundraising and offering professional help to support a lasting transition plan.

St Clare’s is worth saving – together, we can show that closure is a choice, not a necessity.

Introduction

On 6 May 2025, Cognita announced the intention to close St Clare’s School, citing demographic trends and economic conditions as primary reasons for financial losses and declining pupil numbers (1). This paper uses publicly available evidence and detailed analysis to demonstrate that closure is avoidable and unjustified, addressing Cognita’s stated reasons comprehensively.

1. Viable Community Alternatives Exist

SCIST has developed three financially viable and legally reviewed models to keep St Clare’s open, with input from professionals across legal, educational, and financial sectors. Historical precedents from Ffynone House School and Willowbank School successfully demonstrate the feasibility of independent governance beyond corporate ownership (5, 12).

2. Local Demographic Trends Are Stable

Cognita’s assertion that declining birth rates threaten pupil numbers is not substantiated by current data:

• Population Growth: Between the 2011 and 2021 censuses, Bridgend’s population increased by 4.5%, from approximately 139,200 to 145,500 residents, marking the third-highest growth among Welsh local authorities (ONS Census 2021).
• Bridgend Developments: The Bridgend Local Development Plan outlines the construction of 7,575 new homes by 2033, increasing local educational demand (3).
• Porthcawl Redevelopment: In March 2024, planning permission was granted for a large-scale redevelopment in Porthcawl including 900 new homes, a new school, retail space, and public amenities. This confirms not only housing growth but also government expectation of increased educational demand in the town itself. The approved plans form part of the Salt Lake and Cosy Corner regeneration zones, enhancing the long-term family population in direct proximity to St Clare’s (25).
• Fertility Rates: Wales’ overall fertility rate decreased to 1.44 children per woman in 2023, but Bridgend was above this at 1.5. Bridgend’s population growth driven by internal migration and new housing developments significantly offsets any projected declines (ONS Birth Summary Tables 2022 and 2023).
• Independent School Affordability: A lower average fertility rate may, in fact, benefit independent schools. Families with one or two children often find private school fees more manageable than larger families, which can increase the proportion of households considering independent education. This trend may therefore help sustain – or even expand – the market for schools like St Clare’s, particularly among professional or aspirational families relocating to the area.
• Catchment Area Expansion: Enhanced outreach could attract pupils from broader areas, further bolstering enrolment (1).

3. Achievable Financial Sustainability

Independent governance offers a practical route to financial recovery, supported by precedent and SCIST’s detailed planning.

• SCIST’s Strategic Plan: Models that outline strategies for cost efficiencies, expanded fundraising, scholarships, and diversified income through lettings (14, 15).
• Successful Precedents: Financial turnaround post-Cognita, notably at Ffynone House School, demonstrates the realism of recovery under independent governance (5).
• Need for Transparency: Parents have not been provided with detailed public-facing financial data, making independent verification of the claimed losses difficult.

4. Economic Conditions Alone Do Not Justify Closure

Economic challenges exist but are not unique nor insurmountable:

• Bridgend demonstrates economic resilience, supported by Employability Bridgend and Welsh Government interventions (16, 17).
• Regional independent schools have adapted effectively through governance reforms and community engagement (14, 15).

5. Strategic Corporate Realignment

Public reporting suggests that school closures may reflect corporate restructuring rather than local viability:

• Jacobs Holding, Cognita’s owner, is reportedly targeting a £5 billion valuation through sale or public listing (7).
• Closure announcements across the Cognita UK portfolio indicate a systemic strategy, not isolated operational issues (1).

6. Long Leasehold Value of the School Site

Cognita’s interest in the St Clare’s site is secured through a 125-year lease, with approximately 106 years remaining as of 2025 (26).

In the UK education sector, such long leaseholds are considered high-value strategic assets, offering long-term control, redevelopment flexibility, and potential future disposal value.

Given the school’s coastal location, established infrastructure, and existing planning use, the lease is likely to represent significant latent value to Cognita’s portfolio.

While no public statement has confirmed this as a motive, the decision to close St Clare’s may serve to enhance Cognita’s control over the site and its future options. This possibility strengthens concerns that the closure reflects broader strategic portfolio management by the group’s private equity owners – rather than solely local operational factors.

7. Marketing Under-Investment

A limited public-facing marketing presence may have directly negatively impacted enrolment:

• Indicators include outdated online listings and no recent advertising campaigns (9, 10, 11).
• Comparable independent schools have shown that targeted marketing can significantly boost enrolment (14).

8. Broader Educational and Community Impact

Closure would reduce educational choice and disrupt local stability:

• State schools face increased pressure; pupils with Additional Learning Needs (ALN) risk educational disruption (Sources 19, 20).
• Local economic impacts include potential job losses and decreased property values (1).

9. Ethical and Regulatory Responsibilities

There are questions about whether statutory responsibilities have been met:

• No disclosed Equality Impact Assessment on closure effects (21).
• This raises concerns about compliance with Department for Education guidance (8).

10. Community Readiness and Strong Support

The school community has demonstrated significant capability and commitment:

• SCIST mobilisation includes fundraising pledges, media outreach, and political support.
• Over £1.3 million in pledges secured within 10 days of announcement (1).

11. Comparable School Resilience

Schools of similar size have shown resilience post-corporate withdrawal:

• Ffynone House School continued under charitable governance and achieved stability (5).
• Willowbank School shows how leadership and community engagement can sustain smaller independents (6).
• Other Welsh schools have adapted by revising fees and forming public partnerships.

12. Catchment Area Accessibility

The school’s location supports regional enrolment:

• Maesteg, Bridgend, Cowbridge, and Llantwit Major are within 25–35 minutes’ drive.
• Current school bus routes extend significantly further than previously stated, reaching students in Neath Port Talbot (NPT), Swansea, Llantrisant, Bonvilston, and areas on the outskirts of Cardiff. This demonstrates that St Clare’s already draws pupils from a wide geographical area well beyond Bridgend County, confirming strong regional demand and real travel feasibility.
• With bus routes already in place, improved outreach and marketing could further boost enrolment from these well-connected areas
• St Clare’s has strong strategic positioning to serve multiple communities.

13. Cost of Closure

Closure would create measurable community and economic losses:

• Dozens of staff roles would be lost.
• State schools would face sudden intake pressure.
• Parents may face higher costs or commute burdens, and students longer days.
• Loss of a non-selective school that consistently exceeds national average exam results and has been in the top 5% of A-Level providers in the UK since 2018.
• A blow to inclusive education in the region, for pupils who struggle to thrive in larger school environments.
• Local economy and property values would likely suffer.

Closing St Clare’s is not only disruptive to the community but also likely to incur substantial direct costs for Cognita. The school lists 47 staff on its official website (31).

Using public salary benchmarks by role – including data from the National Education Union, the Independent Schools Council, and UNISON (32, 33, 34) – and applying a standard one-term redundancy pay-out, the total staffing cost is estimated at approximately £780,000.

Additional costs are also likely: legal and consultation expenses (estimated £30,000–£60,000 based on Department for Education guidance; (35)), contract termination costs (approx. £20,000–£40,000), and site security and maintenance for the ~11-acre campus, which could cost £70,000–£120,000 annually if the site remains unused (36).

The total estimated cost of closure therefore exceeds £900,000, before factoring in reputational impact across Cognita’s wider portfolio (30).

These are not unavoidable losses – they are funds that could be used to support school operations under a community-led model, rather than being spent on dismantling a viable institution.

Conclusion

The detailed analysis strongly indicates Cognita’s rationale for closing St Clare’s School lacks justification. Viable alternatives, stable local demographics, and economic resilience underscore that closure is neither necessary nor inevitable. Ethical, regulatory, and practical considerations compel a comprehensive reconsideration of the decision.

Sources

1. Cognita Announcement, 6 May 2025
2. SCIST Update 30 May 2025
3. Bridgend Local Development Plan
4. Major Housing Development Application, Oggy Bloggy Ogwr
5. Ffynone House School Inspection Report, Estyn
6. Willowbank School Case Study
7. Cognita’s Strategic Realignment and School Closures, The Times
8. Opening and Closing Maintained Schools Guidance, GOV.UK
9. St Clare’s School Official Website
10. The Good Schools Guide
11. School Guide
12. Community Use of Independent and Special School Facilities, dera.ioe.ac.uk
13. Yahoo UK News, “Proposals for large-scale 800-home development in Porthcawl”
14. Strategic Planning for Independent Schools, The Access Group
15. Mitigating the Impact of VAT on Private School Fees, Armstrong Watson
16. Employability Bridgend and Employability Hubs, Bridgend County Borough Council
17. Welsh Government Support to Sony, Media Service GOV.Wales
18. Bridgend Council Planning Guidance Consultation
19. Impact of Pandemic on Literacy Provision in Wales, Bangor University
20. Additional Learning Needs in Wales, Phys.org
21. Monkseaton High School Closure – Equality Impact Assessment and Equality Impact Assessment Document , North Tyneside Council
22. Private Equity Interest in Cognita, The Times
23. ONS Census 2021, Office for National Statistics
24. ONS Birth Summary Tables 2022 and 2023 Office for National Statistics
25. Massive Porthcawl redevelopment plan including 900 homes, a new school and shops gets go-ahead, WalesOnline, March 2024.
26. HM Land Registry Title Register for St Clare’s School, Newton, Porthcawl, accessed May 2025.
27. GOV.UK, Redundancy: your rights, accessed May 2https://www.nao.org.uk/reports/capital-funding-for-schools/025.
28. Department for Education, Opening and Closing Maintained Schools: Statutory Guidance for Proposers and Decision-Makers, November 2019.
29. National Audit Office, Capital funding for schools, March 2017 – includes costs related to school site management and disposal.
30. TES, School closures and trust reputations: Why transparency matters, April 2023.
31. St Clare’s School Website – Staff Listing, accessed May 2025:
32. National Education Union – Teacher Pay Scales,
33. Independent Schools Council – Workforce Data,
34. UNISON – Support Staff Pay and Conditions,
35. Department for Education – Opening and Closing Maintained Schools: Statutory Guidance,
36. National Audit Office – Capital Funding for Schools,